DISQUS

Jonas · 11 months ago

I think it is fair to say that Second Life has been over-hyped. I interpret that to mean that we have not been able to convincingly demonstrate the value of virtual worlds, or even clearly articulate what the potential value is. The quotes from the respondents to the Pew survey show that there is not even a common understanding of what virtual worlds are.
I also don't think Jarvis's comments are invalidated by his not having tried Second Life (much). If virtual worlds provide benefit to individuals and institutions, then that should be fairly visible without having to spend large amounts of time in-world (ie. there should be stories about "Company X achieved major result (using Second Life)", as opposed to "Company X is using Second Life (hoping to achieve major result)").

I definitely agree that Linden Lab, and other platform/solutions developer, would benefit from doing some serious ethnographic research not only on their target customers, but also on the current SL user-base to understand what exactly is the value they get from the environment.

gracemcdunnough · 11 months ago

Over-hyped in terms of media coverage in a small segment fair enough, but the "MOST over-hyped alleged phenom of the CENTURY"?

I singled out Jeff's comment because I once respected him for his forward leaning thoughts on journalism. His roots, after all, were as a journalist. Given that, I appropriately invalidated his absolute statement based on his lack of experience, and to what I infer, lack of research in the larger space. According to his own accounts, he's spent virtually no time in world and as far as I can tell, has done no subsequent research.

His quote is frankly heady and irresponsible; it's more a prophetic outcry founded on his own inadequacies. Perhaps that is what "futurists" do; I find it repulsive.

Furthermore, if there were visible evidence to your point (and I agree we should endeavor to get there), why would we need "internet leaders, activists and analysts" and "web gurus" like Jarvis to speculate toward 2020 for us? That would left as an exercise for the reader, not a futures report.

Jonas · 11 months ago

Well, there's a certain irony in using hyperbole when talking about hype - not knowing much about Jarvis, I have no expectations of him being reasonable.

I think you point out the problem with all these industry analyses: they are rarely backed by any substance (Gartner even admitted to simply making up the "80% of internet users in 2012" number). Why should we expect a survey of "internet leaders" and "web gurus" to have any meaningful insights on virtual worlds? Perhaps talking to communication experts, educators, and user interface designers would be more valuable. Better yet, those of us promoting virtual worlds can start making specific, *testable* claims, and then attempt to validate them, instead of talking in general terms about "engagement" and other values.

Brian Regan · 11 months ago

The step needed on a business side is integration into work flow. Deciding where the 3D space makes the most sense and integrating it into how people do their jobs. So much of the VW dialog I see is focused around making it something more than it is. A more realistic approach is needed.

gracemcdunnough · 11 months ago

I do love a good bit of irony in the morning.

Now, will I see you at .. what was the name of that conference .. En-something?

(BTW, update your blog already. I think we've all waited long enough.)

gracemcdunnough · 11 months ago

Brian - are you assuming virtual worlds for business are 3D?

Brian Regan · 11 months ago

I think for business it will be many things, based on the needs. What needs to happen is an assessment of each part of business and testing on whether or not a vw will enhance the process or not. Then develop the needed vw app based on the condition needed.

csven · 11 months ago

Perhaps it's not just the VW app which needs to change but the plethora of business approaches still largely based on brick and mortar preconceptions and legacy occupations which no longer provide the benefit they once did.

Virtual PLM's tied to digital direct manufacturing changes the game in ways we've not seen since the adoption of standardized parts and assembly lines.

The work flow is changing and efficient businesses will have to update their "best practices" manuals if they want to stay competitive, afaic. And rather than testing whether or not a VW enhances a process, the deeper issue of whether the process itself is still valid will sometimes need to be addressed.

Laurence Simon · 11 months ago

Back in 2005/2006, I formulated a set of Jarvis Mantras based on the torrent of commandments issued by Jeff Jarvis on buzzmachine.com up until then:

-Local trumps national
-Frequent updates
-Passion
-Voice
-Cite and credit
-Some form of experience or expertise
-News is a two-way conversation

I don't think his failed attempt to install and use it for a brief amount of time counts as experience or expertise from a resident standpoint.

(It does count as experience from a "failed first hour" experience, but I don't think that's his point in that post.)

Right now, there's over tens of thousands of people who have figured it out enough to get online or get a bot account online.

You'd think of the people Jarvis knows, someone could get him going enough so he's on better footing than, say, a hit-and-run British tabloid journalist.

-ls/cm

csven · 11 months ago

"Has Linden Lab decided to turn toward the Enterprise market in a desperate attempt to be viewed as a meaningful platform and not an 'over hyped alleged phenom'?"

I don't believe so. The Enterprise cards were on the table years ago before the hype materialized. And I still think (from this old post - http://blog.rebang.com/?p=1027 ) that there's a fair chance we might see a "premium grid" when they open source the server.

Gwen Smith · 11 months ago

Jarvis sounds like those who spoke of the iPod (or Apple themselves when Jobs' became "iCEO"). He also reminds me of those who made similar comments about the World Wide Web in the 1990s.

Is there hype? Sure is. Is it, by any stretch, "the most overhyped alleged phenom of the century?" Not likely. We've got a lot of century to go, for one.

While I personally do question exactly how important VWs will be to the Enterprise market, I think Jarvis is clearly off his mark here.

Dale Innis · 11 months ago

Good post and analysis; it's head-shaking how often people who tell the media how to behave don't follow their own advice.

"Jeff's conclusions and those of other outspoken internet pundits based on hearsay, opinion and superstition continues to be the highest hurdle for the future of Second Life(tm) as a platform to be considered seriously." I'm not sure. Outside of their own echo chambers, how much weight to the opinions of these pundit actually carry? Does Sam Palmisano care what Jeff Jarvis says? Does Fred Smith? I'm probably naive, but my instinctive reaction is that is people who take these pundits seriously stay out of Second Life, it's no great loss to us... :)

frogger · 11 months ago

He's no futurist,, he's another later to the game "ex gossip writer" who now believes his own pr.

Read about him more... nothing there. there.

lol

doubledown tandino · 11 months ago

Welp. all i can do is disagree.
I say web 2.0 was the most overhyped.
and blogging....
and tweeting...
and sending out message to no one that ever reads them.

thaumata · 11 months ago

reminds me of the fable about the fox and the grapes... and how he wrote them off as sour the moment he realized he couldn't reach them.